No clear signs of peak in global fossil emissions
The headline of the Global Carbon Project's 2024 report: we've not reached peak fossil emissions.
Global emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to rise another 0.8%, for a total 37.4 billion tons (GtCO2), in 2024. Despite growth in fossil emissions, decreases in land-use emissions have plateaued total annual global emissions at 41.6 GtCO2 for the last decade. Atmospheric CO2 is expected to reach 422.5ppm this year.
Among fossil fuels:
- carbon is growing but only slightly
- oil is growing globally but shrinking in USA and China
- natural gas is growing the most, and growing everywhere but the EU
There is some good news:
- Emissions from deforestation are decreasing, while reforestation and afforestation are increasing.
- Emissions are projected to decrease in the US and EU, with their use of coal-power steadily declining.
Overall, uptake of gas and renewable energy is not fast enough to reverse the growth trend, and there's no sign of a decrease in global total emissions.